2021.10.18 18:27 ShortAlgo $FRC Waiting for Short signal on FRC with https://t.co/sxj8WuVZJB https://t.co/c8dkiudSZq
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2021.10.18 18:27 mardekiller Germany, Bremen
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2021.10.18 18:27 PearProfessional6010 I’ll trib for anyone
2021.10.18 18:27 roundpatato [For Hire] Full-stack developer and mobile developer
I am currently looking for freelance jobs (remote). My skills are (I have approximetlh 1.5 years of experience).
Mobile development: React Native (old and with hooks), both iOS and android development.
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Other: Entry level machine learning, MATLAB and Simulink
I can provide example work and resume if desired.
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2021.10.18 18:27 vini_damiani Disapointing performance with Anydesk
So, I have been using Anydesk for work for the past few months, but recently I swapped to a different computer and I have been very disapointed to say the least.
I have a home computer (That hasn't changed) and recently got a new office computer that I connect to, both have high speed connections over 100mb, but for some reason anydesk has been extremely slow, it crashes constantly and I keep losing connection, there is severe ghosting, lag and constant freezes, to the point I am close to ditching the software completely
Any ideas on why is this happening? And suggestions for other softwares
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2021.10.18 18:27 slothsonfire Tips for getting over a crush that will never become anything more?
2021.10.18 18:27 LetTheBandPlay777 The Complete Bear Thesis for SPY, the upcoming correction, and the Unicorn GME hedge against it
| Howdy everyone, some of you may know me already but most do not. It's your boy letthebandplay777 about to drop a comprehensive thesis on why I believe the SPY is on the verge of a market correction, and the fundamentals behind my thesis. I also want to dive into how GME is the perfect hedge against a correction, outside of just the MOASS of course. The fundamentals around our stock market currently are shocking to say the least. Completely and utterly detached from reality. Now lets get to it shall we?|
Preface: I want to state that I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. This is my opinion and my opinion only. This is my first stab at writing a comprehensive DD and I wanna make sure I'm as thorough as possible to establish my argument as clearly as possible. I have been a trader on the side for nearly 10 years now, but I am by no means an expert. Lets just say I do dabble. While I realize in the modern day of being a trader, fundamentals don't seem to matter in the short term but they always, ALWAYS catch up to the stock price eventually. It's an inescapable reality. Market Makers and SHFs are masters of manipulating short term price action but eventually the fundamentals do catch up. Given this, lets take a deep dive into the fundamentals of the US economy, and lets see if current price action supports the fundamentals (spoiler alert, they absolutely do not)
The Fundamentals: Now, a lot of this is up to how the investor approaches their analysis of fundamentals. In my opinion this is a skill that is developed over time and will be much more personalized of an approach (ie there isn't really a wrong way to approach what indicators and data sets you use to formulate your concept for a trade, and as you trade more and more you will find new skill sets and new ways to build your perspective on a trade) Given this, I will go through how I analyze data and attempt to apply it to my trade. We are going to dive into the fundamentals of the US economy. Lets first take a look at job creation, and unemployment numbers. I believe a big tell on how strong the economy is, is to look at what the workforce is doing and how it is being impacted by geopolitical and natural events (pandemics, disasters, etc.) Now job numbers are clearly not going to be the only data set we use but this is where I'd like to begin.
Lets take a look at job creation and unemployment numbers from 2001 to the present, we will be using 2001-2021 to not only have data points for a catastrophic market crash to compare alongside but also data points during multiple recovery periods from a self imposed market crash, to a pandemics effects. A lot of interesting things have happened the last 20 years.
US unemployment from 2001-current
At first glance, our unemployment numbers look solid! But wait a minute, we need to run through the reporting requirements for unemployment numbers and figures, and see if there are holes in the data we are looking at.
"In general, the unemployment rate in the United States is obtained by dividing the number of unemployed persons by the number of persons in the labor force (employed or unemployed) and multiplying that figure by 100. There are, however, various ways of defining “unemployed,” each yielding a distinct unemployment rate. The standard unemployment rate, referred to as U-3, is the one most often cited. By that measure, a person is counted as unemployed if he or she does not have a full-time, part-time, or temporary job, is actively looking for a job, and is currently available to be hired. The category of unemployed persons also includes those who have been temporarily laid off. A person is understood to be actively looking for a job if he or she has tried to obtain one (e.g., by filling out an employment application, sending a résumé, or having a job interview) within the preceding four weeks. Persons who are only “marginally attached” to the labor market—those who want and are available for a job and have actively looked for a job within the preceding 12 months but not within the preceding four weeks—are considered neither employed nor unemployed and thus not part of the labor force. Also excluded are “discouraged” workers, a subset of the marginally attached who are not looking for a job specifically because they believe there are none for which they are qualified or because they have been victims of employment discrimination. In contrast, what is often called the “real” unemployment rate, or U-6, takes into account not only those who are unemployed by the U-3 definition but also those who are marginally attached and those who are employed part-time for economic reasons (i.e., those who want a full-time job but can find only a part-time job). Under U-6 the total number of persons in those groups is divided by the number of persons in the labor force, understood to include persons who are employed, marginally attached, or underemployed. For obvious reasons, the real unemployment rate is greater than the standard rate, sometimes significantly so. For example, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in March 2020 the standard rate was 4.4 percent while the real rate was 8.7 percent." Source -Britannica https://www.britannica.com/story/how-is-the-us-unemployment-rate-calculated
Now hold on a second. There are TWO calculations to our UI rate here in America. Standard rate of Unemployment, and Real Rate of Unemployment. The figure we see in the chart above is the "standard rate" of unemployment, which excludes a large chunk of unemployment individuals. These statistics are misleading and always have been! Now, lets see what they REAL RATE of unemployment is today.
U6 unemployment rate
Now that we are including marginally attached workforce and others, the unemployment rate for today is 8.5%, just about double the standard rate! This figure is pulled directly from the St Louis Fed. This figure also does not include people who just refuse to work today, given the low wages and poor working conditions in a pandemic. I'd imagine the true unemployment rate is even higher than 8.5% right now. Why does this matter?
"More broadly, high unemployment is also problematic for the U.S. economy. Over 70% of what the U.S. economy produces is purchased by domestic consumers through their personal consumption habits.2 Unemployed workers consume far less than those with a steady income because they have less discretionary income." Source- Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/unemployment-rate-get-real.asp
So given this information, high unemployment effects the entire economy since people who do not work, do not spend as much money as they would if they did, which leads to businesses making less money in sales, which leads to the business having to cut costs and that usually starts by reducing the workforce, leading to more unemployment. It can become a death spiral if not addressed. And that is job creation all on its own, we haven't talked about the other fundamentals of our economy.
Now that we have established a high unemployment rate post COVID-19 lockdowns, lets keep going.
Next lets take a look at the price of energy, and how it is different today then it was a few years ago. Let me explain why this is a crucial piece of information, when analyzing the economy as a whole, you need to analyze the main pillars that make it function. Energy and commodities are top of the list. We consume energy to live, to produce, to make the physical side of our economy spring to life. It is also a monthly expense and is factored into our cost of living. If energy prices begin to rise quicker than Americans pocketbooks, this creates an invisible squeeze on our pockets. These things matter when determine the health of the US economy, as the small retail consumer is what makes the world go round. If you all stopped spending money tomorrow the economy would collapse.
US Crude YTD
As you can see, Oil is sky rocketing Year to date, now this information can be partially skewed due to the oil crunch we had when COVID lockdowns began and we actually saw the price of oil go NEGATIVE due to lockdowns. However I believe the "recovery" and reopening was already well underway by January of 2021 so I will choose to keep this information. Here's an extra nugget for you to support my bear thesis.
CRUDE prices in 2008
As you can see here, we saw a very similar price movement in oil back before the 2008 collapse. Oil just about doubled YTD before the big rug pull happened. This is simply just one sector of energy though, we need more data sets to prove that there is something there. Next, lets take a look at natural gas.
Natural Gas prices for 2021
As you can see up above, natural gas prices have been going BRRRRR all year long, right alongside oil prices. Thats two crucial commodities that are expericing massive surges in prices, which means higher prices on your bills and filling up your cars. Two extra burdens on the American consumer. For shits and giggles, and to be as comprehensive as possible lets also compare natural gas prices in 2008 like we did with crude.
Natural Gas 2008
You can't make this stuff up. This seems to be a pattern now that we have 2 energy products seemingly soaring before a big market crumble. Natural Gas went up 100% in 2008, as it has in 2021.
So now that we've put together that unemployment remains high, we've put together that energy prices have doubled, what about commodities such as coffee?
Coffee prices NYSE
Coffee is up 100% for the year, with no signs of cooling down.
Corn and Soybean have cooled off from their massive surge in the first half the year, could be signaling a collapse in commodities, which happened right before the big market crash.
Now you're probably sitting there wondering why the fuck the price of a soybean is important in regards to the US consumer, and the overall health of the economy. Let me give you a quick explanation as to why it's important to gauge commodity prices. "Commodity prices are believed to be a leading indicator of inflation through two basic channels. Leading indicators often exhibit measurable economic changes before the economy as a whole does. One theory suggests commodity prices respond quickly to general economic shocks such as increases in demand. However, in the past 30 years, the correlation has become less significant. That being said, commodity prices performed well as an indicator of inflation when other factors influencing inflation like employment and exchange rate fluctuations were apparent."
Ah yes okay, so Commodities tie into the inflation rate. It used to be used as a benchmark as a leading indicator of inflation, but isn't as sought after now a days as it used to be. But this could just be an outlier to the thesis, commodities are high but where are we at "officially" with regards to inflation? Well, I will get there after I touch on this last data point. This next data point is known as the Baltic Dry Index.
What the fuck is a Baltic Dry Index you may ask. "The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an index of average prices paid for the transport of dry bulk materials across more than 20 routes. The BDI is often viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity because changes in the index reflect supply and demand for important materials used in manufacturing."
Baltic dry index for the last 15 years
Now, at first glance, given what we know the BDI gauges, you would look at this chart here and say "Well its going BRRRR so doesn't that mean our economy is growing given that the BDI measures the movement and demand of goods via import price paid on goods coming via sea?" And my answer to you would be no it is not an indication of that in fact its the opposite. Demand is starting to exponentially exceed available supply, this is most likely due to the bottleneck of the supply chain in our international import chain. Due to cargo ships being so massive, and due to the situation at the ports with ships waiting weeks to unload their products, demand is exponentially surpassing supply, not because demand suddenly sky rocketed, but due to the normal supply being exhausted thanks to these massive wait times, for these massive ships. As you can see, a similar situation in 2008 happened. Commodities, and Import measurements such as the BDI exploded up before everything came crashing down. This is completely unsustainable, this will lead to increase in price on all imported products.
Now, given the increase in everything that's been presented to you in this thesis thus far, there is one last element I'd like to touch on and that is the rate of wages in the United States over time. If price is increasing on goods and services as well as commodities and overall costs of living, it doesn't make a difference if the system works as it should, meaning wage increases to adjust to CPI and bare minimum costs of living. If our wages were not climbing with these other sectors, than we are in much deeper shit than you may realize.
According to the Bureau of labor statistics, wages have been steadily increasing over the last decade.
Average hourly rate for US workforce
From 2011 to the present, we have seen an approximately a 30% increase over the last decade. Seems good right? Is this enough pace to keep up with soaring commodity prices, inflation, and overall cost of living?
Costs of benefits outpacing wages
Larger Paychecks, no change in purchasing power
America makes more money, workforce gets less of the pie
I can go on, and on, and on, but we would be here all day. The short answer is that inflation and cost of living, as well as profits brought in by companies, businesses, corporations, and the government, are only going to the top 1%, while the rest of us get less and less and less. Yes, wages have slightly increased over a decade, but the purchasing power of your hard earned money doesn't change due to inflation. In fact your purchasing power hasn't been any less than it is now. Inflation is a 5.4% rate officially as of today. We can debate all day what the real number is but I don't find it relevant, its far too high.
This brings me to the conclusion of my thesis. This is based off of fundamentals. People will argue till their blue in the face on WHEN the correction will happen, I'm not here to tell you when it will happen. Just that it WILL happen. Reality is this;
The US economy is ran off the workforce that lives in it. Companies can make over a quadrillion dollars profit which would lead stocks to soar obviously but none of that matters at the end of the day it comes down to the fundamentals, and we are the fundamentals. The US consumer cannot survive the current economic conditions, no matter how much money they shove into these companies to live another day, eventually the fundamentals will shine through this illusion of a market. Here are the cold hard facts
DO NOT WAIT FOR A MARKET CORRECTION, I CANT TELL YOU WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY UNFOLD AND UNWIND, THIS WAS JUST DD ON THE PURE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE US ECONOMY. YOU CAN TAKE IT UPON YOURSELF NOW TO DRS YOUR HOLDINGS OF GME! THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT I BELIEVE DRS IS OUR BEST OPTION SO PLEASE DO NOT WAIT!
GME is where I personally believe my money is safest currently given the state of affairs and given the data and information that I discussed on this DD. This is my first DD so if it sucks tell me what to improve on for next time!! Alright I've been writing for 2 hours now and need to eat something!
NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE AND I JUST REALLY REALLY LIKE THE STOCK.
BUY, HOLD, DRS, AND BUCKLE UP 🚀
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2021.10.18 18:27 guhleman Have a beautiful ride today, you lovely scooter people.
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2021.10.18 18:27 flyinbrick [Walmart US] LEGO Technic Porsche 911 RSR (42096) $99/30%
2021.10.18 18:27 sportifynews 3 FANG Stocks to Buy into the Earnings Season
2021.10.18 18:27 digitalbiz What would be best and economical subscription broadcast provider to watch ICC T20 World Cup in Canada?
Simce 8$ Willow TV won't work as they are not streaming this time. What other service provider would be good and economical?
I don't like to watch on shitty sites.
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2021.10.18 18:27 XxXpotatoplayerXxX Magnus pick rate goes from 8% to 24% in one day
2021.10.18 18:27 chihaoto [OC] Art by me
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2021.10.18 18:27 Supersaiajinblue I hate them!
I hate these Reddit thot bots invading my DMS. Like holy shit. I woke up to three chat invites from "Sugar mom's wanting to give me an allowance." Or "Wanting me to become their daddy." Like I'm an autistic 16yo dumb kid with barely any money. Like damn.
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2021.10.18 18:27 kitsune756 Super wholesome Snake girl! Sauce: 370348
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2021.10.18 18:27 vm080011 [WTS] Vostok Amfibia Scuba 076800
2021.10.18 18:27 craftworldyt NOOOOOOOOO MY MEAL!!!!!!
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2021.10.18 18:27 Bpdpunk Playing with randos be like
2021.10.18 18:27 JustMyBanana Nova taktika prevarantov na fb marketplace?
Sodelavec prodaja kolo na fb, kjer so mu že trije ponujali da mu na dom pride dpd kombi, ki mu uroči kuverto z denarjem on pa istočasno preda kolo dostavljalcu, ki ga potem odpelje kupcu. Zanima me če gre slučajno za kakšen nateg, ker nama je use sumljivo?
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2021.10.18 18:27 sexyojamaa Wie fappen. DM
2021.10.18 18:27 sportifynews 3 FANG Stocks to Buy into the Earnings Season
2021.10.18 18:27 bvanvolk [LFA] Looking for someone to draw my Drakewarden Elf from the literal moon- Dax! (Backstory in comments)
|submitted by bvanvolk to characterdrawing [link] [comments]|
2021.10.18 18:27 IWP05 Last I looked Gil-Galad, not Theoden, was king of Lindon
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2021.10.18 18:27 GAntetokounmpo34 Ok so clearly Lamar is the lord and savior of this team and we owe him the world and all that but does anyone else think that despite all the MVP hype is a bit surprising, if only due to his turnover numbers?
Don’t get me wrong I mean he’s clearly by far and away the most valuable player on the team. I’m just saying that usually a guy who throws 2 picks, huge win or not, would have that mentioned against him in MVP media hype talking head conversations. And yet, it seems that everyone is ignoring the INTs. I can’t put my finger on why.
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2021.10.18 18:27 killurbeer Dr Carveys easy shave buttah!